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How Do Chance and Probability Affect Roulette Winning

Roulette players often confuse the two similar but different concepts of “chance” and “probability”.    Most online casino games are games of chance.  Players often get confused between the obvious chance in a game and the probability that a given outcome will result.  At Springbok, we offer a no deposit casino bonus to new players as a way that they can try out all our games, both the games of chance and the games of skill, and hone their skills.

Three Games of Chance

Slots, craps, roulette, and many others are games of chance.  Still, it isn’t as simple as that.  In craps, the most common two die combination is seven.  So, there is a good chance that a bet on any other number will lose but it isn’t a certainty.  If it was a certainty, then there would be no reason at all to play.

In roulette, the chance that a red number will come up is about 50-50.  So, the chance that you’ll win an even money bet is almost 50-50.  The one number that stands in the way of these bets being truly 50-50 bets is the 0.

Slots are more a pure game of chance than the others.  It is because slots are so heavily weighted as games of chance that we tell our gamers again and again to play slots for fun.  We do everything we can to make every slots game we offer as fun as possible - either by choosing the best game developer or, from time to time, running promotions on specific games.

Chance

Chance refers to the possibility that some outcome will occur.  When we spin the roulette wheel, there are many possible outcomes.  There is a chance that any of these outcomes will occur.  There can be overlapping outcomes.  For example, we could bet on black, odd, and the first half of the numbers.  All three outcomes may occur simultaneously; two of the three may occur; only one may occur; and all three may fail to occur simultaneously.

Chance refers to the simple mathematical possibility that any of these four outcomes will occur.  The chance that one of these outcomes will occur is 100% and the chance that any one of these outcomes will occur is 25%.

Let’s exclude the 0 for now.  The chance that red will come up on the next spin in 50%.  The chance that it will come up on the next spin is also 50%.  The chance on any single spin is completely independent of the previous spin or spins.

Online casinos such as Springbok Casino use what is called the Random Number Generator or RNG to determine the outcome of every spin in roulette or slots and every hand in card games.  So, the chance of a given outcome on any one spin is independent of any other spin.

Probability

Probability is calculated differently than chance.  Probability in this context refers to multiple spins of the wheel.  The probability that red will come up two spins in a row are actually 25%.  It’s easier to see this as a fraction: ½ x ½ = ¼ or 25%.

Here is the fallacy that so many players make when they play roulette and the reason for this tips article.  The chance of any one outcome on any one spin always remains exactly the same; it has no connection in terms of chance with any previous spins.  The probability that the same outcome will happen just twice in a row is half the chance that it will happen just once.

Winning Streaks

The chance that a result will repeat causes many gamers to ride winning streaks.  In fact, there are no true winning streaks.  It is true that a player can win several times in a row.  However, the history of the last ten spins has no bearing on the outcome of the next spin.

Possible and Impossible

There are some events that we can predict with 100% certainty.  The sun will come up tomorrow is one such absolutely certain prediction.  Now, some smart person might say that we can’t really be sure that the sun will come up but for all practical purposes we are sure.  It has happened every day since people started making observations and it has never failed to happen even once.

Some events are absolutely impossible.  A man can never outrun a cheetah.  Now, if the cheetah is old, or infirm in some way, a man may be able to outrun the cheetah but a healthy cheetah will overtake a man every time.

Things that Might Happen

In everyone’s everyday lives, there are many things that could happen and that there is no data to accurately predict what will happen.  A perfect example of this is the financial markets.  For convenience, we’ll use the term stock market but we are referring to all financial markets.

A stock might be on a strong upward trajectory.  This could be based on the new product it recently brought to the market.  It could finish trading higher for several days in a row.  But within each trading day, it might dip in price as well as go up.  In fact, even the strongest stocks often dip during the day almost as much as they rise.

There is a type of financial analysis called technical analysis which seeks to predict how a stock will perform based on a graph of its previous performance.  Although the people who invest on the basis of technical analysis swear by it, there is no way at all to be sure that a stock will really go up.  Thus, betting on the way things "might happen".

Application to Roulette

The same fallacy that drives a lot of financial investments also drives a lot of the systems in roulette.  Always keep in mind that there are no systems that can guarantee winning in roulette, in the stock market, or in football, for that matter.  So play roulette for fun and always stay within your financial comfort zone - that keeps it fun, no matter the ups and down.